UK Economic Outlook
2007 - 2008
House Prices - everyone is predicting a slow down linked to levels of
debt, rising interest rates and home information packs. Demand for
housing remains unsatisfied this is likely to keep pushing prices
upwards. Expect more regional variation.
Jobs - No one knows how many migrant workers have arrive or how long
they may stay. The fact that they are numerous in every aspect of the UK
economy suggests there are many and even their home countries are
starting to wonder if the exodus to the UK will be short lived or a
longer term trend.
Retail sales - Showing virtually no real growth underlining the tough
conditions for High Street and internet retailers.
Inflation - Although the UK inflation rate fell in July 2007 many of the
warning signs of higher inflation remain. Energy supply remains
uncertain as wars. politics and weather threaten long term supply. The
rush to bio fuel is also reducing food harvests and this combined with
bad weather will lead to higher food prices. That said, there is still a
lot of productivity gain still to come across the global market that
will continue to hold back inflationary pressure. Expect a few
exceptions to send some shocks through central bankers over the next
year.
