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2010 - comprehensive spending review

The UK Government announcement on how it will save £80bn over the next five years will be tough for business and the public sector. Around 500,000 jobs are expected to be lost from the public sector with supply chain impact into many private sector businesses. To achieve savings of 30% in operating costs required a radical rethink of business. The focus must be, not on the 30% lost but, on the 70% that remains. Looking at how you can achieve your key priorities within the new budget allows a fresh look at what is needed and who can deliver it.

2010 - pension reform

Pensions are again threatening the health of business, public bodies and governments. With volatile stock markets it is tempting to think this is just the swings and roundabout effect so hopefully pension schemes will swing back in to surplus in a few years. This is unlikely. The underlying factor at work is the longer life expectancy. Assuming retirement at 65 the number of years a pension will be claimed has outpaced funding. Poor investment returns simply highlight the trend. There is an urgent need to increase the pension age and increase contributions to ensure a reasonably long and happy retirement.

2009 - strategic failure

The demise of Woolworth after 99 years of trading brings home the severity of the current economic downturn. The loss of 27,000 jobs highlights the impact on people across the country. However, Woolworth was weak before this crisis. For many years it has failed to understand or take the right action in response to the changes in their market. As a result their reason for being in the high street vanished.

2008 - risk averse

The banking crisis is showing no sign of let up as major banks line up to take billions from government to stop them going bust. The problems seems to be that the banks by packaging loans in new and innovative ways the banks lost control of the actual risks they were running. This is hard to believe given the fact that banks core activity is keeping close track of our bank accounts applying interest in complex amounts on a daily basis. This seems to be a simple failure to apply the very good banking practice they have developed over several hundred years.

2008

Oil price have reached over $150 a barrel and at this level the impact on everyone is clear. Trains are filling up. Meetings are cancelled and fewer cars speed down the fast lane. Congestion is starting to fall. The main lesson to learn from this is that a shook changes behaviour and the speed of the recent rise in oil price has demonstrated that there is a point where consumers stop using the car. A useful message for environmentalists to note.

2007 - marketing disaster

A promotional campaign for a US cartoon network TV show Aqua Teen Hunger Force turned into a disaster today. The group placed 38 signs depicting circuit board around Boston but instead of promoting the TV series they were mistaken to be bombs and caused chaos in the city as residents and authorities went into a full blown terror alert. Talk of compensation running into millions will alarm many businesses already wary of marketing department antics. When carrying out risk analysis on new campaigns it is always wise to think the unexpected. The public reaction to the 30cm high signs with wires protruding however might have been predictable.

2007 - Software as a service

Microsoft are about to launch their latest 07 software into a world that is changing fast. The rise of software as a service is threatening to make PC installed software a thing of the past and with it will go he dominance of Microsoft. Software as a service is being pioneered by large companies such as Google but it opens the way for smaller companies such as Salesforce, Netsuite and Shadow to pioneer new services. more

November 22nd 2006 - University of Gloucestershire Court

The gap between University research and the actual application to business seems to remain as wide as ever. With this in mind it was good to see that the new Vice Chancellor of the University of Gloucestershire highlighted the role the University can play with the local community during her installation service. More

August 21st 2006 - Workers choose when to work

The results of a European wide survey of 10,000 workers indicate that workers want to choose how long they work with 52% against any controls on working hours. Interestingly the French and German workers who have experienced working hour restrictions are also in favour of lifting any restriction. It is thought that the limit on working hours is a contributory factor in slowing the French and German economy which resulted in higher unemployment.

This is a clear endorsement of market forces indicating that supply and demand are the best regulators of most activities. With the development of global markets more most goods and services any restrictions by national governments may do more to damage their local workforce than support it.

Faced with ongoing competition effective marketing and slick operations are the best bet for future prosperity.

May 24th 2006 - Commercial Property Insurance market UK

Expect to see rising premiums in the property sectors as a combination of lower premium levels and rising claims impact on results. The commercial property insurance market’s gross written premiums (GWP) declined in 2005, following a slowdown in premium growth rates in 2004. Growth rates have fallen dramatically in the last two years, from 24.3 per cent in 2003, to only 2.8 per cent in 2004. Most recently, in 2005, it is estimated that GWP declined by 7.4 percentage points.

Commercial property claims costs increased significantly in 2005, following a benign year in 2004. Overall, claims costs rose by 69.1 per cent in 2005, driven by a rise in all perils except theft. Claims costs resulting from fire and weather damage soared, and as a result, business interruption costs also increased

May 15th 2006 - GLOBAL MARKET FEELING UNWELL

Falling share prices reflect increased uncertainty as the combination of high commodity and energy prices raise the prospect of higher inflation. If as expected the US Dollar falls substantially against other currencies will this slow growth in Europe and China as their goods become relatively more expensive. Added to this is a warning from the Bank of England that house prices are at high levels.

While all these risks are valid they are not new. The adjustment to share prices may simply be a move to bank recent profits from the rise in share values. The oil price is driven more by speculators than real demand. Prices may fall rapidly when refining capacity comes back on stream and political risks ease. Technology still has the potential to drive rapid productivity gains and the market for global service has yet to get in to full swing. For companies that can adopt to change and seize opportunities the potential for rapid growth remains strong.

May 3rd 2006 - BAD DRIVERS CAUGHT

The news that motorists caught by speed cameras also have more accidents may tell us a little more about the cause of accidents. Not all speeding motorists get caught when they are it is often because they forgot to slow for a known camera or failed to observe one. This may be the connection. Failing to pay full attention and poor response to danger signals when driving will lead to accidents. It also increases the chance of triggering a speed camera. The answer is to find ways to get drivers to give the drive their full attention. At least speed cameras by building up penalty points may help get their attention.

March 9th 2006 - REPRIEVE FOR DIRECTORS

Ministers are to redraft corporate manslaughter laws in response to fears that senior managers could come under excessive scrutiny in the wake of fatal accidents.

In its response to a cross-party Commons inquiry, the government has stated it will reconsider its proposed tests for deciding when companies should face criminal sanctions over management failings that had led to manslaughter. It accepted MPs’ calls for a new test that “better captures the essence of corporate culpability”.

However, ministers signalled that directors, while escaping individual prosecution under the new legislation, could be disqualified if they were found to have contributed to serious management failure

JANUARY 9TH 2006 - AGE DISCRIMINATION

Age discrimination will have a major impact on business in 2006. The new legislation will effect all levels of workers when traditional working policies are questioned. Young people seeking advancement will no longer be fobbed off with "need maturity" Older workers similarly will not accept age has slowed them down. Pension policy, recruitment, training, will all become more complex. Employers are advised to seek advice before they inadvertently find themselves in a mess.

January 6th 2006 - Making use of publicity

Our political parties are demonstrating the power of media in recent months. The conservatives faced with yet another leadership contest at the end of 2005 managed to turn what was expected to be a period of infighting into a major public relations success. Extensive media coverage has not only raised the profile of the leader David Cameron, but prompted members to increase financial support for the party. Contrast this with the plight of the Liberal Democrat leader who is fighting to retain the leadership of his party. Here every piece of media coverage damages his and the Liberal democrat party position. It is easy to put this down to luck or media favouritism but the reality is the positive coverage received by the conservatives came from serious planning and professional marketing.

OCTOBER 28th 2005 Marconi - The Failure of Marketing Strategy

The decision by Marconi to sell the majority of Marconi to Ericsson marks the end of a company that had been a cornerstone of British enterprise for over 100 years. The final demise came following failure to win any part of a major BT contract but it was catastrophic marketing strategy at the height of the millennium dot com rush that set the seed for the company's demise. The board concerned that it would be left in outdated industrial sectors, squandered investment on sectors that were over priced and little understood. A more rigorous attention to strategy and the risks they were taking could have saved billions of shareholder investment and jobs.

OCTOBER 24TH 2005 - GLOBAL MARKET WILL SHAPE FUTURE INFLATION

During the past decade, developing economies have doubled the available supply of workers producing goods and services. The increased competition has held inflation in check even when sharp rises in energy prices might be expected to reignite inflation. Even so in most major economies inflation is now rising. The current level (2.5% in Britain, 2.6% in Europe and 4.3% in USA) is not high by historical standards but in above the desired level. Global inflation is estimated at 3.1% the highest level for 13 years.

More significant is the limited scope individual governments can exert as inflation is driven more by the global availability of goods and global demand. China's thirst for raw materials drove steel and cardboard prices sharply higher in 2004 and helped fuel energy price rises in 2005.

At present this impact is helpful because it has helped to keep inflation in check. However as the army of new workers become consumers the resultant growth in consumer demand may drive global inflation in a way that national governments will find hard to influence by tinkering with taxation and interest rates.

September 26th 2005 - B2B Marketing will benefit from new internet marketing tools

Chancellor George Brown accepts that the Government growth estimates are too high and actual growth will be lower than expected. This could lead to higher taxes, lower government spending or increased borrowing. Higher interest rates in the US are also starting to dent consumer spending. The possibility of a rise in global inflation is increasing.

On the plus side the potential for service sector productivity continue to develop. Business process management, software as a service initiatives and voice over internet protocol will be transforming access and cost of technology for large and small businesses over the next few years. Innovative marketing thinkers are already using these new services to open up global markets. Many more will follow driving a new wave of marketing strategy and service innovation.

September 6th 2005 - Risk assessment has low profile

Small business are failing in risk assessment and allowing contingency planning to slip down their list of priorities. Just 2 months after bombs disrupted London over 50% of London businesses have no contingency plan in place and those that do are failing to communicate it to staff and customers.

Terrorism is just one aspect that could disrupt UK business. Disruption to staff availability and goods deliveries could swiftly follow the rapid increased in petrol prices. One group is already threatening to disrupt UK supplies within a week if tax levels are not reduced.

A simple risk assessment could save every business thousands of pounds and could be completed and implemented quickly.

September 2nd 2005 - getting tough for B2b marketing

The Outlook for the UK economy is looking more fragile.

Inflation rises to 2.3% above the government target range for the Bank of England

Oil prices, already high, have jumped sharply in the USA following damage caused by Hurricane Katrina. With both the USA and China taking steps to secure supplies on the world market a full blown oil crisis is possible.

With 75m garments from China stockpiled on the European boarder waiting for clearance to enter European shops the prospects for retailers are also bleak.

Tips for marketers

· Take time to review assumptions on marketing campaigns in the light of changing conditions. Model performance on lower sales expectations to see how resilient it is to lower global demand.

· Consider short term opportunities that might arise from fuel crisis.

Tips for risk assessment

· Review impact of oil or fuel shortage on operational risk. Prepare contingency plans for key staff including alternative fuel, home working and fuel storage.